Advance Auto Parts Stock Price 2025 to 2030:- Advance Auto Parts (AAP) has spent the last few years under a cloud of operational struggle, lagging far behind its peers like AutoZone (AZO) and O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY). The investment narrative for the Advance Auto Parts stock is currently dominated by one word: turnaround.
As we look out to 2030, the question isn’t about the auto parts industry itself—which remains robust—but whether the new management team can execute its multi-year operational overhaul. The potential upside is significant, but so are the execution risks. This is a direct look at what will drive the Advance Auto Parts stock over the next five years.
The Current State of Advance Auto Parts Stock
As of late 2025, the Advance Auto Parts stock price is trading at a depressed valuation. After several quarters of disappointing margins and a lack of consistency, the stock is clearly priced as a struggling operation rather than a stable industry leader.
- Valuation Discount: AAP trades at a substantial discount compared to the premium multiples of its competitors. The investment thesis relies on this valuation gap closing as performance improves.
- The Three-Year Turnaround: New CEO Shane O’Kelly has initiated a critical three-year plan focused on operational simplification, cost discipline, and supply chain efficiency. Key moves include the divestiture of non-core assets (like the Worldpac business) and the optimization of its store footprint.
- Margin Goal: The stated goal for this turnaround is an ambitious 7% adjusted operating margin run rate by 2027, a significant leap from its recent low single-digit margins. Success here is the single biggest driver for the Advance Auto Parts stock price.
- Dividend: The company has maintained a regular quarterly cash dividend, currently sitting at $\$0.25$ per share, though its future growth is entirely dependent on free cash flow improvement.
Advance Auto Parts Stock Price Projection: 2025-2030
Predicting the Advance Auto Parts stock price in the long-term depends almost entirely on the successful execution of the management’s turnaround plan. The forecast breaks into two distinct phases.
2025-2027: The Execution Phase (The Re-Rating)
This period is defined by cost-cutting and supply chain overhaul. Investors will be laser-focused on key metrics, not just revenue. Positive momentum will be fueled by sequential improvements in gross margin and operating income.
| Year | Projection Drivers | Illustrative Advance Auto Parts Stock Price Range |
| 2025 | Initial positive momentum from store closures, modest comparable store sales growth (around 1%), and adjusted EPS exceeding expectations. | $55 – $75 (Reflecting short-term analyst targets) |
| 2026 | Accelerated supply chain consolidation, expansion of “market hub” stores, and significant gross margin improvement. Operating margin moves toward 4-5%. | $70 – $100 (Based on operational progress) |
| 2027 | Achievement of the targeted 7% adjusted operating margin run rate. Market re-rates the stock closer to peer valuations. | $95 – $130 (Assuming full execution) |
The major risk here is that if the company fails to deliver sequential margin improvement, the Advance Auto Parts stock will remain range-bound in the low end of this spectrum.
2028-2030: The Growth Phase (The Reward)
If the operational turnaround is successful by 2027, the focus shifts to sustained growth and capitalizing on industry tailwinds. By this point, the Advance Auto Parts stock will be valued more like a stable, efficient operator.
- Catching Up to Peers: With a stabilized and optimized operating model, the market will likely assign a higher valuation multiple (P/E or EV/EBITDA) that is more competitive with AutoZone and O’Reilly. This multiple expansion is the core driver of the long-term price appreciation.
- Industry Tailwinds: The average age of cars on the road continues to increase, driving demand for replacement parts (the “car park” demographic is very favorable to the industry). The transition to Electric Vehicles (EVs) is slow enough that the internal combustion engine (ICE) parts business will remain dominant through 2030.
- Potential for $150+: A fully realized turnaround—meaning the 7% margin goal is achieved and scaled—combined with a closing of the valuation gap with its industry peers, could realistically push the Advance Auto Parts stock price into the $150 to $175 range by 2030. This scenario depends heavily on the company using improved Free Cash Flow for share buybacks and dividend growth.
Key Determinants for the Advance Auto Parts Stock
The success of the Advance Auto Parts stock is tied to management’s ability to fix deep-seated operational issues.
1. Supply Chain Efficiency
- The Core Fix: The auto parts business is a logistics game. The new strategy involves consolidating distribution centers (aiming for 12 large facilities by end-2026) and opening larger “market hub” stores (60 by mid-2027). A smooth rollout is paramount.
- The Pro Customer: The reliability of inventory and speed of delivery to the professional installer (the “Pro” segment) is where the real margin is. Improving this service model is critical.
2. Gross Margin Expansion
- Strategic Sourcing: Success hinges on improving purchasing power and inventory management. The ability to lower product costs through better sourcing and less discounting will be directly reflected in the gross margin, the most important lever for the Advance Auto Parts stock.
3. Competition and Pricing
- Peer Pressure: AutoZone and O’Reilly are exceptionally well-run companies. Advance Auto Parts must execute its turnaround without engaging in disruptive price wars that could destroy the very margins it is trying to rebuild.
4. Macro Environment
- The Car Park: Favorable trends like the increasing average age of vehicles and the number of vehicles per household continue to provide a solid baseline of demand.
How to Invest: Buying Advance Auto Parts Stock Step-by-Step
Purchasing the Advance Auto Parts stock requires using an online brokerage account.
Step 1: Access Your Brokerage Account
- Login: Open your chosen trading platform (e.g., Fidelity, Interactive Brokers, E*TRADE, etc.).
- Security: Complete any multi-factor authentication steps (like entering a code sent to your phone or email).
Step 2: Search for the Ticker Symbol
- Use the search bar on your platform.
- Enter the ticker symbol: AAP. Ensure it is identified as Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (NYSE).
Step 3: Fund Your Trade
- Ensure your account has sufficient cash. If not, link your bank account and transfer the desired investment amount.
Step 4: Place the Order
- Click the “Trade” or “Buy” button for AAP.
- Quantity: Specify the number of shares you want to buy (some brokers allow fractional shares).
- Order Type:
- Market Order: Purchases the shares immediately at the current market price.
- Limit Order: Sets a specific maximum price you are willing to pay; the trade only executes if the Advance Auto Parts stock price falls to that level or lower.
Step 5: Review and Confirm
- Review all details (quantity, price, estimated commission/fee).
- Submit the order. You will receive a confirmation once the trade is executed.
FAQ
Is Advance Auto Parts Stock a good long-term investment?
It is considered a speculative long-term investment. The industry fundamentals are strong, but the investment hinges entirely on the new management team’s ability to successfully execute its three-year turnaround plan and close the vast operational efficiency gap with its competitors. If successful, the upside is substantial; if they fail, the stock will continue to languish.
What is the biggest risk to the Advance Auto Parts stock price?
The biggest risk is execution failure. Management has ambitious goals—specifically reaching a 7% operating margin by 2027. Given the company’s history of lagging performance, failure to meet these targets due to supply chain complications or rising competition would significantly undermine investor confidence and keep the Advance Auto Parts stock price depressed.
Does Advance Auto Parts pay a dividend?
Yes, Advance Auto Parts pays a quarterly cash dividend. However, after dramatically cutting it in 2023, the current dividend is modest ($\$0.25$ per share quarterly, or a $\$1.00$ annual rate). The prospect for a substantial dividend increase is tied directly to the recovery of Free Cash Flow, which is projected to improve significantly upon successful turnaround execution.
Conclusion: A High-Stakes Turnaround
The Advance Auto Parts stock is the ultimate “turnaround trade” in the specialty retail sector. The macroeconomic tailwinds are on its side—Americans will continue to drive older cars that require more parts—but the internal machinery of the company has been broken.
For the Advance Auto Parts stock price to achieve its high-end projections of $\$150+$ by 2030, the company must flawlessly execute the three-year plan focused on supply chain optimization and margin expansion. This stock is for investors willing to endure near-term volatility in exchange for the high potential reward of a successful operational recovery.