Natural Gas Price Forecast 2025 to 2040 When we talk about the future of energy, the conversation often feels split between the “now” and the “someday.” But as we look at the Natural Gas Price trajectory from 2025 to 2040, it is clear that gas isn’t just a bridge to the future—it is the foundation of it. Whether it’s heating homes in Europe or powering the massive AI data centers in Northern Virginia, natural gas remains the indispensable baseload fuel of the global economy.
In this deep dive, we’ll analyze the Natural Gas Price forecast through the next 15 years, breaking down the market into three distinct eras of transition and growth.
The Immediate Outlook: Natural Gas Price (2025 – 2026)
As of late 2025, the market is shaking off the extreme volatility of the early 2020s. We have entered a period of “normalization,” but with a higher floor than we saw a decade ago.
2025: The Rebound Year
Following a relatively soft 2024, the Natural Gas Price has seen a significant recovery in 2025.
- Henry Hub Projections: By December 2025, the U.S. benchmark is averaging between $3.50 and $4.10/MMBtu. This is a direct response to a colder-than-expected start to the winter heating season and the ramp-up of new LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) export terminals along the Gulf Coast.
- Storage Realities: While storage levels were high throughout 2024, increased industrial demand and power sector consumption have brought inventories back in line with the five-year average, supporting a steady Natural Gas Price.
2026: The Supply Surge
Moving into 2026, the Natural Gas Price is expected to face some resistance.
- Increased Production: Analysts from the EIA project that U.S. dry gas production will hit record levels of 107-109 Bcf/d in 2026.
- The “Loosening” Market: As the first massive wave of new LNG capacity from Qatar and the U.S. becomes fully operational, the global supply-demand balance will loosen, likely keeping the Natural Gas Price in a stable range of $4.00 to $4.50/MMBtu.
The Mid-Term Shift: Natural Gas Price (2027 – 2030)
The window between 2027 and 2030 will likely be defined by two competing forces: the decarbonization of the West and the rapid industrialization of the East.
The AI and Data Center Boom
One factor that many forecasts missed just five years ago was the sheer power requirement of Artificial Intelligence.
- Baseload Necessity: Renewables alone cannot power 24/7 data center operations. Natural gas is the “flex fuel” that fills the gap.
- Infrastructure Demands: In regions like the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, the Natural Gas Price may see regional premiums as pipeline capacity struggles to keep up with the surge in electricity demand for AI.
2030 Price Forecast
By 2030, Deloitte and other industry benchmarks suggest a Natural Gas Price (Henry Hub) of approximately $5.40/Mcf. In Europe and Asia, the JKM and TTF benchmarks are expected to remain at a significant premium, likely trading between $10 and $13/MMBtu as they compete for the same global LNG cargoes.
The Long-Term Vision: Natural Gas Price (2031 – 2040)
Predicting any commodity 15 years out is a challenge, but for natural gas, the trend is “structural resilience.” Between 2031 and 2040, the market will move from being a “transition fuel” to a “permanent partner” for renewable energy.
The Rise of India and Southeast Asia
While demand in the U.S. and Europe may begin to plateau in the 2030s due to efficiency gains, India and Southeast Asia are just getting started.
- Coal-to-Gas Switching: As India pushes to increase the share of natural gas in its energy mix from 6% to 15%, the global Natural Gas Price will be increasingly dictated by Asian spot demand rather than American heating seasons.
- The 2040 Prediction: Long-term models suggest a potential Natural Gas Price of $6.50 to $7.50/Mcf by 2040. This reflects the higher cost of production as “easy” shale plays are depleted and more expensive offshore and deep-well projects are brought online.
Key Drivers Influencing the Natural Gas Price
To understand the long-term forecast, you have to look at the “Three Pillars” of the gas market:
- LNG Export Capacity: The U.S. is on track to provide one-third of global LNG supply by 2030. This ties the domestic Natural Gas Price directly to global events in a way that didn’t exist ten years ago.
- Geopolitics: The permanent shift away from Russian piped gas in Europe has created a structural “scarcity premium” that will support the global Natural Gas Price for the foreseeable future.
- The Intermittency Gap: As more wind and solar are added to grids, the need for fast-ramping natural gas power plants increases. This “peaker” demand is high-value and supports price stability.
Projected Price Table (2025 – 2040)
| Year | Henry Hub (U.S.) | JKM/TTF (Global) | Market Sentiment |
| 2025 | $3.60 – $4.10 | $12.00 – $14.00 | Bullish (Normalization) |
| 2026 | $4.00 – $4.50 | $11.00 – $13.00 | Neutral (LNG Supply Ramp) |
| 2030 | $5.20 – $5.60 | $12.50 – $15.00 | Bullish (AI Power Demand) |
| 2035 | $5.80 – $6.50 | $14.00 – $17.00 | Structural Growth (Asia) |
| 2040 | $6.50 – $7.50 | $15.00 – $19.00 | Scarcity (End of “Easy” Shale) |
FAQ: Natural Gas Price Forecast
Why is the Natural Gas Price rising in 2025?
The 2025 increase is driven by three factors: colder winter weather, a slowdown in drilling activity during the low-price environment of 2024, and the opening of new LNG export capacity that allows more U.S. gas to reach higher-priced global markets.
How does AI affect the Natural Gas Price?
AI data centers require massive amounts of reliable, 24/7 power. Because wind and solar are intermittent, utilities are increasingly relying on natural gas to provide the “baseload” power for these facilities, driving up domestic demand.
Will the Natural Gas Price ever go back to $2.00?
While short-term “gluts” can happen due to extremely mild winters, the structural cost of production and the high demand for LNG exports make a sustained return to sub-$2.00 prices unlikely in the 2025-2040 window.
Is natural gas still a “green” investment?
The narrative has shifted toward “Gas + Renewables.” Because natural gas has 50% lower CO2 emissions than coal, it is seen by most global governments as the essential partner for a stable, lower-carbon grid through 2040.
Conclusion
The story of the Natural Gas Price from 2025 to 2040 is one of evolution. We are moving away from the era of “cheap and abundant” shale gas into an era of “global and strategic” energy.
For the next 15 years, the Natural Gas Price will be the pulse of the global energy transition. It will balance the intermittent nature of renewables, fuel the industrialization of the developing world, and provide the massive energy required to power the AI revolution. While the transition to net-zero is the goal, the road to 2040 is paved with natural gas.